Old Man Cap

It’s about time that this has been officially stated. For those who have been thinking that the economy has been sucking since before August, you were right!

NBER: Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

This also begins to explain why foreclosures starting happening en masse at the beginning of last year and it bringing the recession out in force.

S&P 500 Crashes - from Calculated Risk

I’m of the belief that the current blipping is the eye of the storm and we have more room to fall as the recession beats us down over the next year. I love graphs.

So for those who don’t know what Fleet Week is, it’s one week a year when the US Navy comes to town, does air shows, lights fireworks and pukes sailors all over the city.

Outside of the regular “I don’t like military folk” aspect of it, a lot of it makes me nervous, pissed off, and scared. I never know when Fleet Week is supposed to be except when about 6 or 8 Blue Angel jets start flying over the city. At first, I’m confused and think the Russians are attacking (not really). The first flight got me thinking. I was driving north on 280 when I saw about 6 or 8 jets circling & scrambling the city. They were flying really low and going literally in between buildings. It made me think that it excites some of the people with the air show, but also, that we’re in a fucking war. What’s novel to us here is what goes on every day in Afghanistan and Iraq, except they’re dropping bombs. It’s a click of a few triggers away. It’s also a large display of military might in a city that’s virulently anti-war. Lastly, we just hit a national debt level of $10 trillion and we’re spending way, way, way past our budget. How much fuel does it take to fly those fucking jets every day? Nevermind how much it took to come to the city in the first place. I don’t want my current & future tax dollars pissed away to wow some people.

It’s not worth it.

$5 trillion to $10 trillion in 7.5 years

I’ve been away from this blog for a little too long for many personal reasons lately but I’m back and looking to contribute.

First things first,since it’s debate night, the election. Things are starting to look real hopeful in the long run for Obama even though the short term until November is grisly and ugly as the slurs are starting to come out in force. Crowds at McCain rallies have even started to yell racial epithets & fearmongering slogans along the lines of “Terrorist!” & LITERALLY “Kill him!” when McCain has been mentioned Obama by name. This is some intensely scary stuff. The public consciousness is starting to see this and become afraid. They don’t want to be associated with this hatemongering and this violent swing of the McCain campaign (while not deliberately intentioned, it is an obvious consequence of the bullshit they’ve been stuffing into gullible people’s ears).  I really feel that this is going to be the straw on many undecideds’ backs to break them into supporting Obama. I hope I’m right.

Please check out Five Thirty Eight to get up to date with where the election is at from a statistical point of view. It’s obviously skewed towards Obama. I believe that’s because the author has knowledge of an advanced skill outside of mouth breathing. (Hey look, I’m skewed, too!)

Next, the economy. If there’s one odd thing I pride myself on, it’s being pessimistic. Specifically, when it comes to the economy. You should have gleaned that from prior posts if you read somewhat-regularly. September of 2008 has been the month where the country has finally put two and two together and realized we are in a serious recession. I am expecting there to be more bank failures but I feel that they start to subside with all the Federal Reserve plans that have hit in the past few days. There are really trying to give banks the money they need to recapitalize to stay afloat (this means that the companies don’t have enough money to lend out anymore because of bad loans. What this does is halt their lending. Our economy depends on regularly available credit to live, so we need to resuscitate them as much as it pains to do so).

At one point it’s necessary to not have a severe crash. On the other hand, this is socializing loss and privatizing profit, which is incentive to take crazier and crazier risks. I wish there were a reset button but there is not. I personally think that no matter what we do, we will have some sort of crash, even if it’s not a societal reset button sort of crash. Even if I didn’t just spend our savings on a new home, I would have pulled all my money out of the stock market. 3% in a high-yield checking account is way better than -25% and growing. It’s probably somewhat safe at this point to just short the Dow Jones. (If you take my advice and lose money, I am not in any way responsible. You make your own choices and I can’t guarantee anything.)

The only good thing to say on the economy at this point is if you have money saved, buy something that’s lost a lot of value and enjoy the upswing in 5 to 7 years.

Also, may Jebus have mercy on the United States of America if Palin is anywhere near the Vice President’s office. She scares the shit out of me and enrages me to the fullest extent possible at the same time.

Beta News: Us Gov’t cannot use cell phone IDs without a warrant, court affirms

In Pennsylvania, law enforcement tried to get the ability to use cell phones as ankle bracelets to monitor targeted individuals’ physical locations without a warrant. Thankfully, this was shot down by US District Court Judge, Terrence McVerry. Can you imagine the potential police state with the ability to track you down by using your own communication devices? This is scary stuff.

Glenn Greenwald: Federal government involved in raids on protesters

Thanks to the ever-increasing domestic dragnet, the 1st Amendment grant to protect public assembly is being violently infringed upon by the federal government.

Homes of potential protesters were raided before the RNC convention this weekend. Many were arrested having done literally nothing wrong but being in a political group. This is truly some scary stuff that’s not really being reported anywhere in the main media. These groups were infiltrated by the government and spied on beforehand.

This is obviously meant to scare those who would otherwise protest and speak up. And it’s working. I’d love to protest and be that involved but I don’t want to be beaten and arrested. I have a high aversion to such things.

It’s also scary to what it could mean if you keep taking this behavior and system and expand on it. I just read The End of America: Letter of Warning to a Young Patriot by Naomi Wolf and loved it. Loved it and was truly terrified by it. It talks about all the steps fascist use to shut down a democracy and how close we are to that edge. Read it if you have time (or ask me to lend it to you). It’s a quick and enthralling read.

Speak out.

Updated: After a lunch conversation over this sort of thing I started recalling a bit about Alexis deTocqueville’s Democracy in America where he defines soft despotism. Do read the link, especially the exert from Volume II that is included in the wikipedia link. It’s got a great goodie in there predicting the general level of politics in this day and age.

Dealbreaker: Q&A on Georgia Part 1

Dealbreaker: Q&A on Georgia Part 2

If you want to know a lot more about what’s going on with the Russian/Georgian conflict, please read the above Q&A session with a few regional experts.

It boils down to Russia preparing and just waiting for the right excuse to invade Georgia, inflict a regime change, and eliminate energy competition to Europe. Georgia was stupid enough not to think things through and adequately prepare for what it started with an invasion to end separatist violence in the Ossetia region.

Russia is now invading and ripping the nation apart and there is really nothing anyone else can do about it. It was a fantastic strategic move on their end. Georgia was applying for NATO membership and Russia needed to do their dirty work before that happened otherwise they wouldn’t have had a chance. (If it was a NATO nation, any invasion would be countered by the entire alliance going to war with the offending nation.)

Europe can’t do anything because Russia supplies 1/3 of their energy supplies. The US can’t do anything for a few key reasons. 1) We’re already fighting 2 wars and can do without WW3. 2) We need their support on Iranian weapons proliferation. Georgia was an ally as well with the most troops in Iraq outside of the US & Britain (2000, which have since been flown out to Georgia on Uncle Sam’s dime) We’re essentially going to sacrifice Georgia as an ally to serve our Iranian interests.

The article goes into great detail on all the motives and strategery.

Crooks & Liars:100K Signatures for Impeachment Delivered to Pelosi

Baltimore Chronicle & Sentinel (Dave Lindorff):

The dramatic hearing on presidential crimes and abuses of power held on Friday by the House Judiciary Committee was both a staged farce, and at the same time, a powerful demonstration of the power of a grassroots movement in defense of the Constitution. It was at once both testimony to the cowardice and self-inflicted impotence of Congress and of the Democratic Party that technically controls that body, and to the enormity of the damage that has been wrought to the nation’s democracy by two aspiring tyrants in the White House.

[Most mainstream media outlets] have blacked out news of impeachment. Incredibly, the New York Times, for example, has not even reported on Friday’s hearing, even as a news “brief.” Those news organizations, like the Washington Post and the Philadelphia Inquirer, that did report on the hearings did so only in short, inside articles. Though the hearing was aired in full on C-Span (and is still available for download), many Americans don’t even know it happened.

The 4 I’s. Remember them, spread them. Impeachment hearings today in the House of Representatives.

Greenwald: The parade of “shrill, unserious extremists” on display at today’s impeachment hearings

Investigate. Indict. Impeach. Imprison.